The future of energy in the United States can’t be forecast by electricity demand alone. It also requires understanding a sprawling network of systems, including fuel supply, industrial production, global supply chains and the minerals that make modern energy technology possible. Untangling that complexity is exactly the challenge that Maxwell Brown, assistant professor of economics and business at Mines, has taken on in his search for smarter solutions for the nation’s energy future.
Using advanced computational models that simulate how the U.S. energy system might evolve over the next 25 years, Brown’s work connects electricity generation, industrial demand and critical minerals supply chains. These models show how decisions made today could ripple through the nation’s economy and infrastructure and affect tomorrow’s energy landscape.
Early in his career, while working for the National Laboratory of the Rockies, Brown rewrote the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a major programming tool that simulates the long-term capacities and operations of the U.S. electricity system through 2050 and beyond. A few years ago, he began leading the development of a complementary model, the Fuels and Industry Integrated Optimization (FINITO) model, which looks beyond the power grid to examine fuel supply and major industrial sectors like steel, cement, ammonia, aluminum, chemicals and more.
“It forecasts the future of those sectors—how much energy they’re consuming and where they’re getting that energy,” Brown explained.
These models allow researchers to simulate how U.S. energy systems might evolve under different policies, market conditions and technological developments. When used together, models like ReEDS and FINITO can give us a clearer picture of the whole energy network.
“FINITO is built the same as ReEDS, so they can co-optimize, becoming one giant model, which is exciting,” Brown said.
A central part of Brown’s modeling focuses on critical minerals and how their availability affects energy sectors. Many technologies expected to power the next generation of our energy systems—advanced energy technologies, high-efficiency motors, enhanced electric grids—depend on minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and more. While these minerals often sit far upstream from power plants or transmission lines, their availability can dictate how quickly new technologies are deployed and how expensive they become.
Brown’s models examine how disruptions in the critical mineral supply chain can affect the energy system and broader economy.
“What we’re looking at now is what energy products and what critical minerals are we unable to produce domestically? And what would happen if their supply gets disrupted? Which ones could cause the biggest price impacts or the largest disruption to the evolution of the electricity grid?” Brown said.
These questions are particularly urgent, because many of the minerals needed in modern technology are produced and processed outside the U.S. If those supply chains are strained by geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions or surging global demand, the consequences could extend well beyond mining markets.
Brown translates these constraints into tangible economic effects, helping policymakers and the public understand the stakes.
“I like to translate those possibilities into what they might imply for more economic-focused outputs, like GDP or economic welfare,” Brown said. “What does that mean for different households? What does that mean for my energy bill if we can’t affordably get neodymium-based products in the United States?”
By connecting mineral supply chains with energy demand and economic indicators, Brown’s research helps illuminate how deeply interconnected modern energy systems have become. Decisions about mining, manufacturing and trade can ultimately shape everything from electricity prices to the pace of energy transitions.
For Brown, the goal isn’t just understanding these connections but helping leaders identify strategies that strengthen domestic supply chains and make the U.S. energy system more resilient.
“How do we reduce our costs and provide enough energy to meet new sources of demand quickly? There’s obviously the questions on regulations and permitting, but there’s also just this question of how do we maintain a competitive trade balance and not import everything? How do we build out a domestic supply chain to enable these technologies, from mine to megawatt? How do you enable a network that allows us to do all of this domestically with limited imports? How do we insulate ourselves from price variability?”
As the United States navigates a rapidly evolving energy landscape, Brown’s work highlights just how interconnected the system has become. Electricity generation, industrial production, global trade and critical minerals supply chains are no longer separate conversations but pieces of the same puzzle. By modeling those connections, Brown hopes to give policymakers, industry leaders and researchers the tools they need to make smarter decisions about how to power the country in the decades ahead.
Explore more of how Mines is leading the energy future at https://www.mines.edu/energy-research.
About Mines
Colorado School of Mines is a public R1 research university focused on applied science and engineering, producing the talent, knowledge and innovations to serve industry and benefit society – all to create a more prosperous future.
